Artigos

There is no room: The Role of Reciprocal Effectual Demands in Ricardo’s Theory of Foreign Trade

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to an interpretation of Ricardo’s theory of foreign trade following the lead of Sraffa’s own 1930 critique of Ricardo ́s alleged error and recently developed by other Sraffians. We argue that Ricardo assumed that trade happened at natural prices in each country. And once we take the process of gravitation towards those prices into account it follows that : (i) Ricardo’s theory is not incomplete, but fully determined so there is no need for price elastic demand functions, contrary to what John Stuart Mill argued; and (ii) in the simple cases of the examples of chapter 7 of Ricardo’s Principles, the terms of trade are determined by the ratio of the given actually traded levels of reciprocal effectual demands. Leia Online Download Clique aqui para fazer o download

Analysis of Brazilian National Treasury Primary Auctions in the 2000s: an MMT interpretation

There are many factors to consider when discussing the impact of the stock of domestic public debt on long-term interest rates and the government´s ability to issue obligations at said rates. Primary factors include the stock of debt relative to GDP, as it is argued that large stocks of government domestic debt relative to GDP cause market participants to distrust the government´s ability to honor future payments, which in turn exerts upward pressure on the interest rate and may hinder the Government´s ability to finance itself. In this view, investors in public bonds would have bargaining power to “reject” some types of bonds and/or to “accept” buying them only at high interest rates. They would be “bond vigilantes” that could cause difficulties in rolling-over the debt and pressure interest rates to move higher. This “vigilance” would be reinforced by the International Rating Agencies, whose downgrades would increase the pressure on…

Country-Risk Premium in the Periphery and the International Financial Cycle 1999-2019

Taking into account the pull-push debate on the weight that external or internal factors have on the behavior of capital flows and country-risk premium of developing economies, the aim of this article is to assess empirically the extent by which the push factors, linked to global liquidity and interest rates, (compared to country-specific factors) play on the changes in the risk premium of a set of countries of the periphery, in the period 1999-2019. This done using the methodology of Principal Component Analysis, which can relate the information from different countries to its common sources. We also test for a structural change in the premium risk series in 2003, by means of structural break tests. We find that push factors do play the predominant role in explaining country risk changes of our selected peripherical countries and that there was indeed a substantial general reduction in country risk premia after 2003,…

Super Haavelmo: balanced and unbalanced budget theorems and the sraffian supermultiplier

This paper extends the analysis of Haavelmo (1945), which derived the multiplier effect of a balanced budget expansion of public spending on aggregate demand and output. We first generalize Haavelmo’s results showing that a fiscal expansion can have positive effects of demand and output even in the case of a relatively small primary surplus and establishing the general principle that what matters for fiscal policy to be expansionary is that the propensity to spend of those taxed should be lower that of the government and the recipients of government transfers. We also show that endogenizing business investment as a propensity to invest makes the traditional balanced budget multiplier to become greater than one. Moreover, if this propensity to invest changes over time and adjusts capacity to demand as in the sraffian supermultiplier demand led growth model, the net tax rate that balances the budget will tend to be lower the…

Thirlwall’s Law, External Debt Sustainability and the Balance of Payments Constrained Level and Growth Rates of Output

Thirlwall’s law, given by the ratio of the rate of growth of exports to the income elasticity of imports is a key result of Balance of Payments (BOP) constrained long run growth models with balanced trade. Some authors have extended the analysis to incorporate long run net capital flows. We provide a critical evaluation on these efforts and propose an alternative approach to deal with long run external debt sustainability, based on two key features. First, we treat the external debt to exports ratio as the relevant indicator for the analysis of external debt sustainability. Second, we include an external credit constraint in the form of a maximum acceptable level of this ratio. The main results that emerge are that sustainable long run capital flows can positively affect the long run level of output, but not the rate of growth compatible with the BOP constraint, as exports must ultimately tend…

Dissenso ao Contrassenso do Novo Consenso: a Alternativa da Macroeconomia da Demanda Efetiva

A recente difusão no exterior e aqui no Brasil das ideias da MMT e das Finanças Funcionais deve ser comemorada. Afinal, limpar o terreno do debate permite avançar e comparar o que há de fato em disputa nas teorias. Esse artigo procurou mostrar, entretanto, que mesmo a utilização desses princípios teóricos pode levar a conclusões irrealistas em termos de politica fiscal quando incorporados dentro do contexto do modelo do Novo Consenso. Aqui no Brasil, o texto de Lara Resende levou um ortodoxo como Samuel Pessoa a declarar que aceita que o governo não quebra na própria moeda, mas que deveria enfatizar mais a importância da taxa natural de juros, enquanto a resposta dos pós Keynesianos brasileiros foi mais no sentido de tentar apontar possíveis problemas na MMT e tentar negar que o Estado e o Banco Central tenham amplos graus de liberdade para operar, do que criticar a taxa natural…

CHINESE INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE INFORMATION AGE: THE CASE OF SEMICONDUCTORS

This paper examines the semiconductor’s industry growing importance as a strategic technology in the modern industrial system and in contemporary warfare. It also analyzes this industry’s evolution in China and the Chinese semiconductor industrial policy over the last years. We review the Chinese interpretation of the ‘revolution in military affairs’ and China’s perception of its backwardness as well as the possibilities of catch-up and evolution in the most sophisticated segments of this productive chain through domestic firms and indigenous innovation. Leia Online Download Clique aqui para fazer o download

A Hipótese de Estagnação Secular nas teorias do crescimento econômico: um labirinto de inconsistências teóricas

O objetivo dessas notas é mostrar, que tanto na versão de Hansen quanto na de Summers, a argumentação sobre o problema da estagnação secular se faz baseada em fundamentos teóricos questionáveis, na medida em que parecem não serem construídos de forma coerente nem com a abordagem neoclássica para a teoria do crescimento, nem com os modelos heterodoxos de crescimento liderado pela demanda.

Conflito Distributivo e o Fim da “Breve Era de Ouro” da Economia Brasileira

O objetivo deste trabalho é discutir as causas principais da interrupção, a partir de 2015,do processo de crescimento com inclusão social que ocorreu na economia brasileira a partir de meados dos anos 2000, processo que chamaremos de “Breve Era de Ouro” da economia brasileira em alusão ao processo semelhante, porém bem mais longo e intenso, que ocorreu nos países centrais depois da Segunda Guerra Mundial até o inicio da década de 70 do século passado.

O Retorno dos Bacharéis

Na República Velha, o bloco dominante era formado pelos proprietários de terra, com os bacharéis como seus intelectuais orgânicos (Antonio Gramsci em sua análise do Mezzogiorno italiano referia-se a estes como intelectuais orgânicos do bloco agrário), tanto por legitimarem esta dominação quanto por resolverem os litígios comerciais e defenderem seus direitos de propriedade (obtidos em grande parte por fraudes).

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