Em recente palestra proferida num seminário promovido pela Comissão de Assuntos Econômicos (CAE) do Senado Federal em homenagem a Werner Baer, o Prof. Edmar Bacha declarou: “Todas as grandes economias mundiais são abertas, mas o Brasil não. […] Somos um gigante de 3% do PIB global, mas um anão com apenas 1,5% das exportações.”
It is not a simple task to convince a government – especially in developing countries where the need for prosperity and better income distribution is dire – to shoot its own foot by adopting growth-thwarting, job-losing “stabilisation” policies.
For this reason, back in the 1990’s promoters and advocates of the Washington Consensus employed a whole lexicon of catchphrases and buzzwords to build a moral-sounding, all-enveloping discourse in which to couch a hard kernel of neoliberal recipes.
The daily turnover of global foreign exchange markets fell by 5.6% from April 2013, to an average US$ 5.1 trillion in April 2016, according to the recently published figures of the Bank for International Settlements’ “Triennial Central Bank Survey”. It is also the first time since 2001 that FX spot turnover has subsided. Naturally, exchange rate movements influence comparisons with previous surveys. In particular, the appreciation of the US dollar between 2013 and 2016 reduced the USD value of turnover in other currencies. When valued at constant (April 2016) exchange rates, global turnover increased slightly, by about 4% between April 2016 and April 2013. Nevertheless, the latest developments contrast with the strong growth in turnover observed between Triennial Surveys since 2001. Indeed, the previous decade had seen a continuous growth in the global size of the currency markets, with traded values increasing by nearly 400%, from US$ 1.1 trillion in…
While the Western world was held spellbound, as usual, by its own navel fluff (which this week answered to the silly media catchword “Brexit”), the real action was once more happening in Asia.
One day after having met privately with President Xi Jinping during the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China this Saturday, accompanied by six of Russia’s seven Deputy Prime-Ministers – the core of the country’s government – and, crucially, by the CEOs of Rosneft and Gazprom, the giant oil and gas companies.
Em todo o mundo, a reversão da trajetória sofrida pela economia brasileira após ter atingido o apogeu de 2010 tem confundido igualmente comentaristas profissionais, analistas experientes e agentes do mercado. À medida que transcorria o ano de 2015, projeções cada vez mais negativas (“A Economia do Brasil Vacila” , “Uma Economia à Beira do Abismo”, “O Pior Pode Estar
Por Vir”) não eram menos difundidas do que expressões de incredulidade (“O que terá acontecido com o Brasil?”, “A Escandalosa História de Expansão e Colapso do Brasil”, “A Súbita Ascensão e Declínio Brasileiros”) e, mais recentemente, de ansiedade (“Goldman Sachs Diz Que Brasil Entrou Em ‘Franca Depressão ̓ ”) acerca do destino do membro sul-americano dos BRICs.
Throughout the world, the reversion of fortune suffered by the Brazilian
economy since reaching its zenith as recently as 2010 has confounded shrewd commentators, seasoned analysts and market players alike. As 2015 unfolded, ominous projections (“An Economy on the Brink”, “Brazil’s Economy Falters” “Worse May Be To Come”) were no less widespread than expressions of bewilderment (“Whatever Happened to Brazil”, “Brazilian Waxing and Waning”, “Brazil’s Scandalous Boom to Bust Story”), and, more recently, of alarm (“Goldman Sachs Says Brazil Has Plunged Into ‘An Outright Depression’”) concerning the fate of the South American BRIC country.